@SBakerMD Obesity is (then and now) unrepresented in people walking around in a city. Rate was around 10% in 1967.

@SBakerMD肥胖症（当时和现在）在城市中行走的人中没有出现。1967年的发病率约为10%。

@thesarahkelly You should demand a $100 refund, like when you buy a purse at Macy's and then they drop the price the next week.

@thesarahkelly你应该要求退款100美元，比如当你在梅西百货买了一个钱包，然后他们在下周降价。

@GRomePow @MulletNationInc @EpsilonTheory @RJRCapital Both are bad certainly. Both at the same time isn't impossible either.

@GRomePow@MulletNationInc@EpsilonTheory@RJRCapital这两个词当然都不好。两者同时存在也并非不可能。

@GRomePow @MulletNationInc @EpsilonTheory @RJRCapital If people care about being employed in the future, they better care about the direction of the trend.
Of course, even in a recession, vast majority are still employed, but the strength of the labor market hurts many who are still employed (fewer options, low/no raises, etc.)

@GRomePow@MulletNationInc@EpsilonTheory@RJRCapital如果人们关心未来的就业，他们就更关心趋势的方向。
当然，即使在经济衰退中，绝大多数人仍在就业，但劳动力市场的强大伤害了许多仍在就业的人（选择更少，加薪/不加薪等）

@MulletNationInc Don't take my word, go look at one of those charts with the shaded bars. You'll see it clearly.

@MulletNationInc别相信我的话，去看看那些带阴影条的图表。你会看清楚的。

@MulletNationInc Unemployment almost always STARTS low in a recession, then rises through the recession. That's almost literally what it means. Peak to trough of a business ccyle.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@MulletNationInc失业率几乎总是在经济衰退时开始较低，然后在经济衰退期间上升。这几乎就是它的字面意思。商业模式从高峰到低谷。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@GRomePow @MulletNationInc @EpsilonTheory @RJRCapital Do you realize that recession is defined by rate of change (i.e. growth, positive or negative) and not the absolute levels?

@GRomePow@MulletNationInc@EpsilonTheory@RJRCapital你意识到衰退是由变化率（即增长，正或负）而不是绝对水平定义的吗？

@Kondiaronk1 @thapana_b @EpsilonTheory That's nearly final (I think there is one more release to add). The average error of that model is around 3/4%. Almost certain to be negative.

@Kondiaronk1@thapana\u b@EpsilonTheory这几乎是最终版本（我认为还有一个版本需要添加）。该模型的平均误差约为3/4%。几乎肯定是负面的。

@MulletNationInc @EpsilonTheory @RJRCapital What do you see? https://t.co/N8eyd8gKp8

@MulletNationInc@EpsilonTheory@RJRCapital你看到了什么？https://t.co/N8eyd8gKp8

@EpsilonTheory @RJRCapital It is literally a pure falsehood that "economists" don't evaluate the business cycle that way. Some do, at least sometimes.

@EpsilonTheory@RJRCapital“经济学家”不以这种方式评估商业周期，这简直是一个彻头彻尾的谎言。有些人这样做，至少有时是这样。

@StanphylCap How do you know they haven't?

@StanphylCap你怎么知道他们没有？

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife (HEPA filters also protect kids from other airborne infections, mold, asbestos, lead dust, air pollution, etc. in often old and not necessarily safe schools. There are very large payoffs to that modest investment.)

@thereal_truther@joaquinlife（高效空气过滤器还可以保护儿童免受其他空气传播感染、霉菌、石棉、铅尘、空气污染等。在通常陈旧且不一定安全的学校。这项适度的投资有很大的回报。）

@MauiLiberty @thereal_truther I guess his solution is Paxlovid.
Or was that sarcasm?

@MauiLiberty@thereal_truther我想他的解决方案是Paxlovid。
还是讽刺？

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife I also don't think it is particularly ethical, or effective, to put all of the costs and risks on to vulnerable and often resource-poor people when reasonable society-wide measures exist to help them.

@thereal_truther@joaquinlife我也认为，当全社会都有合理的措施来帮助弱势群体和资源贫乏的人时，将所有成本和风险转嫁给他们，这不是特别合乎道德或有效。

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife I guess we may disagree about "most". Smart society-wide measures like ventilation, sick pay can have large society-wide effect even if limited individual effect.

@thereal_truther@joaquinlife我想我们可能不同意“大多数”。通风、病假工资等明智的全社会措施可以在全社会产生巨大影响，即使个人影响有限。

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife A lot of this really is about political will, leadership, and using smarter measures. It doesn't have to be enormously costly like, say, lockdowns.

@thereal_truther@joaquinlife很多这真的是关于政治意愿、领导力和使用更明智的措施。它不必像封锁那样花费巨大。

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife For example, there are approximately 2 million classrooms in the US. Two HEPA filters in every classroom (80% reduction in infections according to Italy study) has a cost of about $1 billion with ongoing maintenance cost of maybe $1/2 billion per year. Not extremely costly IMO.

@例如，thereal_truther@joaquinlife，美国大约有200万间教室。每个教室安装两个HEPA过滤器（根据意大利的研究，感染率降低了80%）的成本约为10亿美元，每年的持续维护成本约为12亿美元。IMO不是非常昂贵。

@VanGennepD @CT_Bergstrom This is the one I was thinking of. Caveat lector, of course. https://www.rootclaim.com/anal...

@VanGennepD@CT_Bergstrom这就是我想到的。当然要注意，莱克托。https://www.rootclaim.com/anal...

@thereal_truther @joaquinlife Thank you.

@thereal_truther@joaquinlife谢谢。

@VanGennepD @CT_Bergstrom Curiosity is certainly reasonable. There was some sort of prediction market type site I can't remember that posited some sort of consensus. Not obviously right of course.

@VanGennepD@CT_Bergstrom好奇当然是合理的。有一个预测市场类型的网站，我不记得它提出了某种共识。当然，这显然不对。