@RandallBurns5 @michaelmina_lab @mbrushstocks I think most of these excess death models are calibrated based on 2019 and before and aren't right at this point. They don't account for prematurely losing millions of the most vulnerable, which should make deaths trend well below 2019 levels at this point.
@RandallBurns5 @michaelmina_lab @mbrushstocks 我认为这些超额死亡模型中的大多数都是根据 2019 年及之前进行校准的，目前并不正确。他们没有考虑过早失去数百万最脆弱的人，这应该会使死亡人数的趋势远低于 2019 年的水平。