@JustinLawGuy @RyanRadia @breathtkinan @NateSilver538 It's not analysis, it is a ballpark estimate. Explain which factor is implausible here. I think they're all pretty close.
@JustinLawGuy@RyanRadia@Breattkinan@NateSilver538这不是分析，而是大致估计。解释一下哪个因素是不可信的。我觉得他们都很接近。