If rates rise materially my base case scenario would be stagflation. Popular thought is that the @fed increases rates to stem inflation, but the fed has limited ability to cure structural production issues stemming from COVID lockdowns, but they will mute (weak) economic activity https://twitter.com/ReggieMidd...
如果利率大幅上升，我的基本情况是滞胀。人们普遍认为，@美联储提高利率是为了遏制通胀，但美联储解决新冠病毒封锁导致的结构性生产问题的能力有限，但它们将抑制（疲软的）经济活动https://twitter.com/ReggieMidd...