@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis That I agree with.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 我同意。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis The covid-sniffing dogs were always interesting. I mean you could use the dogs but you should also be able to come up with some sort of sensor that replicates it.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 嗅探新冠病毒的狗总是很有趣。我的意思是你可以使用狗，但你也应该能够想出某种传感器来复制它。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis I could be convinced with a modeling study, but I'm doubtful. Single measures usually don't work.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 我可以通过建模研究来说服我，但我对此表示怀疑。单一措施通常不起作用。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis Not the clinical trials, since they didn't measure infection.
But the observational studies in the first few months showed vaxes stopping infection and nearly 100% effective against severe disease and that drove everything that followed.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 不是临床试验，因为它们没有测量感染。
但最初几个月的观察性研究表明，vaxes 可以阻止感染并且对严重疾病几乎 100% 有效，这推动了随后的一切。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis The reduction in travel is a huge factor. Even quarantines leaked to an extent, but when you combine 99% reduction with quarantines stopping almost all leakage, you get close to zero. But if you make the measures user-friendly, you much more travel and much more leakage.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 旅行减少是一个重要因素。甚至隔离区也有一定程度的泄漏，但是当您将 99% 的减少量与几乎所有泄漏的隔离区结合起来时，您就接近于零。但是，如果您使这些措施对用户友好，那么您的旅行就会更多，泄漏也会更多。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis I'm not sure 90% does much. 10% leakage explodes exponentially relatively quickly (back to 100% in ~3 doublings) The places that were really successful had real quarantines, electronic monitoring, and basically no travel.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 我不确定 90% 做了多少。 10% 的泄漏相对迅速地呈指数级增长（大约 3 倍后恢复到 100%） 真正成功的地方有真正的隔离、电子监控，而且基本上没有旅行。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis I don't know what goes in Trump's head but I think most didn't expect it at all. But then early studies from CDC, Israel and others showed that it did initially sterilize in practice, which drove or at least accelerated the shift to vaccine-only and vax-and-relax strategies.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 我不知道特朗普脑子里在想什么，但我认为大多数人根本没想到。但随后来自 CDC、以色列和其他国家的早期研究表明，它最初确实在实践中进行了消毒，这推动或至少加速了向仅疫苗和 vax-and-relax 策略的转变。

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis It's basically no travel. There is no way to know who is uninfected. Yes places with (enforced) border controls usually had a quarantine scheme to allow "some" travel, but the burden of that reduced travel by something like 99%.

@mskathleenquinn @greg_travis 基本上没有旅行。没有办法知道谁没有被感染。是的，有（强制）边境管制的地方通常有一个检疫计划，允许“一些”旅行，但这种负担减少了大约 99% 的旅行。

@AgustinLebron3 Or they have already finalized the transaction on the register before seeing how much you're giving them, and don't want to admit they can't figure out the change on their own so they give you back $20.15 or some other random amount that isn't plausible.

@AgustinLebron3 或者他们在看到你给他们多少钱之前已经在登记册上完成了交易，并且不想承认他们自己无法弄清楚变化，所以他们给你 20.15 美元或其他一些随机的不合理的金额。

@greg_travis "Permanent" isn't something most leaders in democratic countries think about much or at some level can even internalize. They're obsessed with the next election.
The temporary sterilizing immunity wasn't expected but came to be viewed as a "win" to be taken.

@greg_travis “永久”不是民主国家的大多数领导人想太多，甚至在某种程度上可以内化的东西。他们痴迷于下一次选举。
暂时的消毒免疫是意料之中的，但后来被视为要采取的“胜利”。

@awiner @Bob_Wachter At once per month you might be getting close to the risk of seasonal flu infection (about 5-15% per year). Of course, this assumes no other risks, meaning no in-home unmasked gatherings, constant masking at work, school, etc.
("Masked" = excellent quality mask worn properly.)

@awiner @Bob_Wachter 每月一次，您可能会接近感染季节性流感的风险（每年约 5-15%）。当然，这不承担任何其他风险，这意味着没有在家中不戴口罩的聚会，在工作、学校等场所不断戴口罩。
（“蒙面”=正确佩戴的优质口罩。）

@AlexGaggio @wsbgnl Depending on your perspective of "that often", that may be true, but it's still close to maximized risk, making the entire calculation useless (even if the numbers were accurate, which is very questionable).

@AlexGaggio @wsbgnl 根据您对“经常”的看法，这可能是正确的，但它仍然接近风险最大化，使得整个计算毫无用处（即使数字是准确的，这是非常值得怀疑的）。

@awiner @Bob_Wachter EACH TIME.
If you do that 2-3 times per week (assuming no other exposures beside restaurants), it means you are are going to get covid once +/- every year or so. Which is STILL pretty much maximized risk.

@awiner @Bob_Wachter 每次。
如果您每周这样做 2-3 次（假设除了餐馆之外没有其他接触），这意味着您将每年左右感染一次新冠病毒。这仍然是风险最大化。

@BuddaDonny @StandTogether aka Koch Network https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@BuddaDonny @StandTogether aka Koch Network https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@apmalong It's also mostly not that effective if you're trying to apply it at a point location. e.g. rapid tests w/high false negative, incorrect *real world* mask usage resulting in << 100% protection. You really need the network effect of reducing/removing circulation to get to "zero".

@apmalong 如果您尝试在某个点位置应用它，它也大多不是那么有效。例如快速测试，高假阴性，不正确的*现实世界*面具使用导致

@apmalong Even groups unmasking only within their own group would still result in infections "on your facility" but I get your point.

@apmalong 即使只在他们自己的小组内揭露的小组仍然会导致“在你的设施上”感染，但我明白你的意思。

@wsbgnl Well if you're regularly engaging in 1/14 risk (average American eats out 2-3x/week, and higher income people in places in cities like SF probably a lot more than that), that's going to be OFTEN, essentially as often as immunity allows. Which makes his calculations pointless.

@wsbgnl 好吧，如果您经常承担 1/14 的风险（美国人平均每周吃掉 2-3 次，而在旧金山等城市的高收入人群可能远不止于此），这将是经常发生的，本质上只要免疫力允许。这让他的计算毫无意义。

@apmalong Anybody answering zero at this point would need to shut down. Perhaps that's an okay answer since what you may be getting at is that there is no way to operate such a facility safely in a rampant plague world.

@apmalong 此时任何回答为零的人都需要关闭。也许这是一个不错的答案，因为您可能会得到的是，在瘟疫猖獗的世界中，没有办法安全地操作这样的设施。

@apmalong Patio if not crowded. And mostly don't even do this much any more. Used to do it regularly, and even some indoors, in times/places with little to no covid circulating, but those basically don't exist now apart from China.

@apmalong Patio 如果不拥挤。而且大多数情况下甚至不再这样做了。过去经常这样做，甚至在一些室内，在几乎没有或几乎没有新冠病毒传播的时间/地方进行，但现在除了中国之外基本上不存在。

@wsbgnl It's also terrible advice that amounts to "how to get covid"
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@wsbgnl 这也是一个糟糕的建议，相当于“如何感染新冠病毒”
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...