@PlasticFull @robwiss On the bright side, repeated risk quickly goes to 100% for any numbers remotely close to his assumptions, so sensitivity analysis is favorable!

@PlasticFull @robwiss 从好的方面来看，对于任何与他的假设相近的数字，重复风险很快就会达到 100%，因此敏感性分析是有利的！

@PlasticFull @robwiss He left out repeated risk, which is the most important thing.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@PlasticFull @robwiss 他忽略了重复的风险，这是最重要的。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@jeremychrysler And maintenance.

@jeremychrysler 和维护。

@sri_srikrishna @Bob_Wachter Well lots of empty seats there, and plenty of standing room.
What kind of N95 is that, I don't recognize it?

@sri_srikrishna @Bob_Wachter 那里有很多空座位，还有足够的站立空间。
那是什么N95，我不认识？

@YouAreLobbyLud It's utterly pointless analysis as usual. Even if his made up numbers were right, which they're mostly not.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@YouAreLobbyLud 像往常一样，这完全是毫无意义的分析。即使他编造的数字是正确的，但他们大多不是。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@Bob_Wachter So a 1 in 14 chance EACH TIME you do it. After not too many times at that rate, you're guaranteed to get covid. If what's what you want, why bother with all this? Just go hit the bars.

@Bob_Wachter 所以每次你这样做的机会是 14 分之一。以这种速度多次后，您肯定会感染新冠病毒。如果你想要什么，为什么要为这一切烦恼？去酒吧吧。

@MyassesDragon @hpayne62 @Nervardia @GunnelsWarren These are averages. Average = some areas higher, some lower.

@MyassesDragon @hpayne62 @Nervardia @GunnelsWarren 这些是平均值。平均值 = 一些区域较高，一些区域较低。

@knowmiun @Noahpinion @SlickVaguely Doesn't appear to be adjusted for population. This actually makes matters worse for millennials, which are the largest population, although probably slightly better for X.

@knowmiun @Noahpinion @SlickVaguely 似乎没有针对人口进行调整。对于人口最多的千禧一代来说，这实际上让事情变得更糟，尽管对 X 来说可能稍微好一些。

@jeremychrysler @mgubrud I've noticed the same. Seeing the dirt on the filters is a selling point. With the commercial air cleaners you only see the dirt when changing the filter and maybe not even then (depends how the filters are packaged).

@jeremychrysler @mgubrud 我也注意到了。看到过滤器上的污垢是一个卖点。使用商用空气净化器时，您只能在更换过滤器时看到污垢，甚至可能看不到（取决于过滤器的包装方式）。

@mgubrud @jeremychrysler I mostly run them on low (though switch to high temporarily if I know air is particularly dirty). Still quite high CADR and CADR/$ as per your graph and much less noise even compared to medium. Perceived noise is subjective and depends on ambient environment though.

@mgubrud @jeremychrysler 我主要在低速运行它们（但如果我知道空气特别脏，暂时切换到高速）。根据您的图表，CADR 和 CADR/$ 仍然相当高，即使与中等相比，噪音也要小得多。感知到的噪音是主观的，并且取决于周围环境。

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 Peaks maybe, but they're short peaks vs. ongoing high level. Quite a different burden on people, institutions and society.

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 也许是高峰，但它们是短期高峰与持续的高水平。人们、机构和社会的负担完全不同。

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 Kids don't exist in a vacuum. They have family members, caregivers, teachers, etc. who all get infected, miss work or school, are hospitalized, have long covid, and die at much higher rates than typical seasonal flus, which infect 5-15% per year.
The impact is not similar.

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 孩子不存在于真空中。他们的家庭成员、护理人员、教师等都被感染、错过工作或上学、住院、长期感染，并且死亡率远高于典型的季节性流感，后者每年感染 5-15%。
影响并不相似。

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage Household attack rates are still <50%. If you can live with someone and not get it, given limited or no precautions in the home (especially during the pre-symptomatic phase), it can't be THAT hard to wear a good mask and have low chance of infection out in public.

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage 家庭攻击率仍在

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage Before near-universal immunity (of some degree), it was easier to measure, but Alpha was probably the last variant where it was easy to measure transmission advantage. One animal study (w/non-immune population) suggested Delta more transmissible than Omicron.

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage 在近乎普遍免疫（在某种程度上）之前，它更容易测量，但 Alpha 可能是最后一个易于测量传输优势的变体。一项动物研究（w/非免疫群体）表明 Delta 比 Omicron 更容易传播。

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage "More transmissible variants" is overstated to some degree (unclear how much, but some). Those claims about R0=18 or R0=300 for Omicron were bullshit based on relative growth rates, which conflates immune evasion with transmissibility. This was always a very transmissible virus.

@JamesConran1 @n_hold @wsbgnl @BillHanage “更多可传播的变种”在某种程度上被夸大了（不清楚多少，但有些）。那些关于 Omicron 的 R0=18 或 R0=300 的说法是基于相对增长率的胡说八道，这将免疫逃避与传播性混为一谈。这一直是一种非常容易传播的病毒。

@JamesConran1 @wsbgnl @BillHanage Harm per infection has declined a lot in large part due to many more infections. That doesn't imply that total harm has decreased much.
Also, not sure about difficult/costs. The only thing you could do more easily before to avoid infection was get lucky (w/lower prevalence).

@JamesConran1 @wsbgnl @BillHanage 每次感染的危害在很大程度上由于更多的感染而下降了很多。这并不意味着总伤害减少了很多。
此外，不确定困难/成本。在避免感染之前，您唯一可以更轻松地做的事情就是走运（患病率较低）。

@wsbgnl @JamesConran1 @BillHanage Also more availability, variety, and lower costs for those higher quality masks (including some free N95 masks, though availability is extremely uneven).

@wsbgnl @JamesConran1 @BillHanage 对于那些更高质量的口罩（包括一些免费的 N95 口罩，尽管可用性极不均衡），它们的可用性、种类和成本也更高。

@BillHanage @wsbgnl Infection was far more avoidable (at least with vaccine) in July 2021.
The question was asking you what you have seen in terms of framework. That wasn't asking you to endorse specific numbers from July 2021.

@BillHanage @wsbgnl 感染在 2021 年 7 月更容易避免（至少使用疫苗）。
问题是问你在框架方面看到了什么。这并不是要求您从 2021 年 7 月开始认可具体数字。

@Saikmedi @greg_travis @BillHanage This was done here, which looked at a vast range of factors pre-vaccine. Mitigation policies remained as a very significant influence. (Of course, mitigation policies extend beyond masking.)
https://twitter.com/joe_sill/s...

@Saikmedi @greg_travis @BillHanage 这是在这里完成的，它研究了疫苗接种前的大量因素。缓解政策仍然具有非常重要的影响。 （当然，缓解策略超出了屏蔽范围。）
https://twitter.com/joe_sill/s...

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 @BillHanage @jonlevyBU Harms are still vastly worse than flu/other viruses (even if not per-infection, which is debatable, chance of infection is vastly higher). The rational point to have the same approach is when harms are the same. They are not.

@AltMiddlePeds @gardengirl778 @BillHanage @jonlevyBU 危害仍然比流感/其他病毒严重得多（即使不是每次感染，这是有争议的，感染的机会要高得多）。采用相同方法的合理点是危害相同。他们不是。