@WesPegden @dave_andersen Not when they're correlated. If masks go on when and where case rates go up, where there is more spread, where there is more testing to identify cases, etc., then not much effect. You might see more, even many more cases in THAT same situation without masks, but there's no data.
@WesPegden@dave_andersen当它们相互关联时就不是了。如果口罩在病例率上升的时间和地点、传播更广的地方、识别病例的测试更多的地方等，那么效果不会太大。在没有口罩的情况下，你可能会看到更多甚至更多的病例，但没有数据。
@WesPegden @dave_andersen Confounders mean we don't know this. The confounders are often correlated with the the mandates (higher community case rates, more crowded schools, more vulnerability to spread or disease in the community, etc.)
@WesPegden@dave_andersen的混淆意味着我们不知道这一点。混杂因素通常和任务相关（更高的社区病例率、更拥挤的学校、更容易在社区传播或疾病等）
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt We don't know how many positives because the trial did not include testing everyone and reporting on positive or negative. Only people who reported symptoms AND tested positive were considered cases (in either placebo or vaccine arm).
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquinn@和Yaschmidt我们不知道有多少阳性，因为试验没有包括对每个人进行检测，并报告阳性或阴性。只有报告症状且检测呈阳性的人被视为病例（安慰剂组或疫苗组）。
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt "positive test result and at least one symptom"
It's right there in the article. Reduction of symptomatic disease. Not infection or transmission.
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquinn@andyaschmidt“阳性检测结果和至少一种症状”
就在这篇文章里。减少症状性疾病。不是感染或传播。
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt Do you see what I said way back here: "Later on the opposite was claimed".
That is exactly what you are saying here. Later on = March-May (or July if you want to count CDC foot dragging on Delta).
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt No you weren't. You were told to keep your mask on because it wasn't whether vaccines would stop transmission. Later on the opposite was claimed. Perhaps it was true at the time (to an extent), but the virus and vaccine efficacy is not static, both changed.
Cope.
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquin@andyaschmidt你看到我在这里说的话了吗：“后来相反的东西被宣称了。”。
这正是你在这里说的。晚些时候=3月至5月（如果你想计算CDC在Delta上的拖延时间，则为7月）。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquinn@和Yaschmidt不，你没有。你被告知要戴上口罩，因为这不是疫苗能否阻止传播。后来有人提出相反的要求。也许当时（在某种程度上）确实如此，但病毒和疫苗的效力并不是一成不变的，两者都发生了变化。
处理
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt That was in March, not December, not November.
There was no data on infection or transmission in November. None.
@泰格蓝魔鬼@MsKathleenquin@andyaschmidthttps://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquin@andyaschmidt那是在三月，而不是十二月，也不是十一月。
11月份没有关于感染或传播的数据。没有一个
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt The discussion was you claiming that "at first" we were told that vaccines stopped transmission. We weren't.
We were told that for a brief period of a few months in the middle. That is all.
And it doesn't matter because that virus no longer exists.
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquinn@andyaschmidt讨论的是你声称“起初”我们被告知疫苗停止了传播。我们没有。
我们被告知在中间的短短几个月。仅此而已。
这并不重要，因为病毒已经不存在了。
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt Unless you force the remaining unvaxed to get vaxed, the only way deal with surges is to mitigate transmission and MOST of the transmission is vaccinated at this point.
Even forced vax does't entirely deal with it, because you still have too many workers (even vaxed) sick, etc.
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquin@andyaschmidt除非你强迫剩下的未接种疫苗的人接种疫苗，否则应对激增的唯一方法就是缓解传播，而且大部分传播都在此时接种疫苗。
即使是强制vax也不能完全解决这个问题，因为仍然有太多工人（甚至是vax）生病等等。
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt Look, I explained this to you. The vaccines were tested for symptomatic disease. I understand the confusion, and perhaps this distinction could have been communicated better (perhaps downplayed to encourage vax uptake).
But it doesn't matter now when the virus is different.
@tiggerbluedevil@msKathleenquin@andyaschmidt听着，我已经向你解释过了。对疫苗进行了症状性疾病测试。我理解这种困惑，也许这种区别本可以更好地传达（也许为了鼓励vax的吸收而淡化）。
但现在，病毒何时不同并不重要。
@Nutmeg031992 @LongDesertTrain That's kind of water under the bridge at this point in terms of what wasn't done or decision made (although with ongoing surges, the need persists).
But what bothers me the most really is near-zero effort to improve future preparedness for future and potentially worse pandemics.
@肉豆蔻031992@LongDesertTrain就没有做的事情或做出的决定而言，这有点像是桥下的水（尽管在持续涌浪的情况下，需求仍然存在）。
但最让我困扰的是，几乎没有任何努力来改善未来对未来和可能更严重的流行病的准备。
@Nutmeg031992 @LongDesertTrain January 2021 version of the plan is here. There is a lot in there which wasn't done or was quickly abandoned to focus only on vaccines.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-...
@ NutMEG031992 @ LongDesertTrain 2021年1月版的计划就在这里。其中有很多工作没有完成，或者很快就被放弃，只专注于疫苗。
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-...
@Nutmeg031992 @LongDesertTrain Could have been updated. Biden issued a revised plan in January along with several executive orders to implement that plan (develop workplace safety standard, etc.) but that was all dropped to rely only on vaccines and the virus disappearing.
@肉豆蔻031992@LongDesertTrain可能已经更新。拜登在1月份发布了一份修订计划，以及执行该计划的几项行政命令（制定工作场所安全标准等），但这一切都被放弃，只能依靠疫苗和病毒消失。
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt By May it had started to become apparent it was no longer true as Delta started to appear.
So, hurray, we had a nice little 2-3 month window of known protection against transmission.
Other than that, no.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0...
@五月份，随着Delta的出现，这一点开始变得明显，不再是事实。
所以，万岁，我们有一个很好的2-3个月的已知预防传播窗口。
除此之外，没有。
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0...
@tiggerbluedevil @mskathleenquinn @andyaschmidt The trials measured symptomatic disease, that is all. They never measured infection or transmission.
Again, they're not even remotely close to 90% on that basis either, as of now.
We're not dealing with the same virus that achieved those numbers, and haven't been since summer.
@tiggerbluedevil@mskathleenquinn@和Yaschmidt这些试验只测量了症状性疾病，仅此而已。他们从未测量过感染或传播。
同样，到目前为止，在这个基础上，他们甚至还远没有接近90%。
我们不是在对付达到这些数字的同一种病毒，而且从夏天开始就没有过。