Aeon 的最新消息
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 Test and do what? There are basically no effective treatments available (on paper yes, but no supplies unless you are rich or a celebrity or 95 years old with 8 comorbidities).
@在PNW@D28EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88测试中表现最好,然后做什么?基本上没有有效的治疗方法(纸面上是的,但除非你是富人、名人或95岁有8种共病,否则没有供应)。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 Empirically you don't see everyone in the room getting it every time someone infectious walks in. Don't even see everyone sharing a household getting infected.
@Best inthepnw_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88根据经验,你不会看到房间里的每一个人每次有传染病患者进来都会得到它。甚至都不会看到每个同住一个家庭的人都被感染。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 It's not even close to 70x more infectious than delta. In fact there is one study (Denmark household survey) that says it isn't even more infectious at all, but spreads more because it evades immunity better.
@在PNW@D28EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88中,它的传染性甚至不比delta高70倍。事实上,有一项研究(丹麦家庭调查)表明,它甚至没有更大的传染性,但传播更广,因为它能更好地逃避免疫。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 Also, you can absolutely expect continued mutations and continued immunity reduction from an old vaccine built for a different virus, with unclear roadmap to be updated. BA.2 has more new ones.
@在PNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88中,你完全可以期待为不同病毒构建的旧疫苗会继续发生突变,并持续降低免疫力,更新路线图不明确。文学士。2有更多新的。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 If there is reduced load, it's probably later, as with the delta paper you posted above. But most transmission is early (cycle time aka average transmission time is around 5 days up to delta, may be faster for omicron).
@BestInPNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88如果负载减少,可能是以后的事情,就像你在上面发布的delta论文一样。但大多数传输都是早期的(周期时间,即平均传输时间约为5天,直到delta,omicron可能更快)。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 It also, with certainty, reduces plume projection so people at a reasonable distance have a better chance to be protected by ventilation/filtration. Only masks can help with short to medium range transmission, air handling is never fast enough.
@BestIn PNW_@d28 EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88它还可以肯定地减少羽流的投射,因此在合理距离的人有更好的机会受到通风/过滤的保护。只有口罩能帮助中短程传播,空气处理永远不够快。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 That's exactly why universal masking is more effective. Even imperfect use (within reason, chin masks don't count) of a surgical masks is going to reduce circulating particles in the air. Some exhaled air does go through the mask and get filtered.
@BestInPNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88这正是通用掩蔽更有效的原因。即使不完美地使用外科口罩(在合理范围内,下巴口罩不算在内),也会减少空气中的循环颗粒物。一些呼出的空气确实会通过口罩过滤。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 There's no clear data that it isn't. But perhaps that will emerge in which case it is sensible to revisit.
But from a high level view, it is clear that vaccines are steadily failing for transmission at a minimum as variants increase evasion. Each successively worse.
@BestInPNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88目前还没有明确的数据表明它不是。但也许会出现这种情况,在这种情况下,重新审视是明智的。
但从高层次来看,很明显,随着变异增加了逃逸,疫苗在最低限度上无法传播。每况愈下。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 And no, I don't think forever is the right answer. As risk subsides through adaptation e.g. treatments actually readily available, increased population immunity, better vaccines, etc. the need will subside too. That doesn't happen just because you want it too. Risk still too high
@Best inthepnw_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88不,我不认为永远是正确的答案。随着风险通过适应而降低,例如,实际可获得的治疗、增加的人群免疫力、更好的疫苗等,需求也将减少。这不会因为你也想要就发生。风险仍然太高
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 A very significant portion of transmission is in the day or two before symptoms, and many early symptoms are ambiguous (tickle in throat, start of a headache, slight congestion) and many will reasonably ignore them since 90% of the time they are nothing.
@Bestin PNW_@d28 EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather 88传播的很大一部分是在症状出现前一两天,许多早期症状都是模糊的(喉咙发痒、头痛开始、轻微充血),许多人会合理地忽略它们,因为90%的时间它们都是无关紧要的。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 It doesn't, because it lowers the number of infectious particles in the air to begin with = taking a sip of water or having an imperfect fit is much lower risk.
@BestInTPNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88它不会,因为它降低了空气中传染性颗粒的数量,从一开始=喝一小口水或不完全合身的风险要低得多。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 You risk of transmitting and contributing to large, highly disruptive surges or localized outbreaks is extremely high. Without mitigations almost everyone vaccinated or not is going to transmit.
@BestIn PNW_@d28 equityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88您传播和促成大规模、高度破坏性激增或局部暴发的风险极高。如果没有缓解措施,几乎所有接种或不接种疫苗的人都会传播病毒。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 It's also literally impossible for kids (or, likely, some extremely small adults) to wear an N95 since they don't exist in kid sizes.
@BestInPNW_@D28EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88儿童(或者,可能是一些非常小的成年人)也不可能穿N95,因为他们没有儿童尺码。
@BestinthePNW_ @D28EquityNow @drlucymcbride @kprather88 One way masking works at a fraction of universal masking, and ignores people who legitimately can't wear a mask, imperfect fit or use, practicalities such as needing to take a sip of water, potential (probably low not zero) routes such as eyes or fomites.
@BestInEpnw_@D28EquityNow@drlucymcbride@kprather88单向掩蔽的效果仅为通用掩蔽的一小部分,并且忽略了那些合法不能戴口罩的人、不完美的佩戴或使用、需要小口喝水等实际情况、眼睛或蚊子等潜在(可能不是零)路径。
@69L46 @Capt3958 @JeromeAdamsMD Sure, but the background data in terms of cases and general logic is still quite different on the leading vs. tailing side of a surge.
When the shelter in place was issued last year at 80% it was clearly rising, that's not the case now.
@69L46@Capt3958@JeromeAdamsMD当然可以,但在激增的领先和落后方面,案例和一般逻辑方面的背景数据仍然有很大不同。
去年,当住房到位率达到80%时,它明显在上升,但现在不是这样。