Aeon 的最新消息

@Noahpinion This seems a little complicated for 15-24. For example, fewer people dropping out of high school would reduce employment.

@Noahpinion 这对于 15-24 来说似乎有点复杂。例如,从高中辍学的人数减少会减少就业。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@bhrenton @JAMANetworkOpen Interesting only about 2x per decade. I think that's a lot less than the original slope pre-immunity.

@bhrenton @JAMANetworkOpen 有趣的是每十年只有 2 倍。我认为这比原来的坡度免疫前要少得多。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@phealthsean @GidMK @TrotStats @RichardfromSyd1 Every one of those is probably true.

@phealthsean @GidMK @TrotStats @RichardfromSyd1 每一个都可能是真的。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@EroticaGood @mikejohansenmd @19joho This is a really good point, not repeated often enough, and also given that large metro areas are also travel hubs it is quite plausible that earlier outbreaks which are noticed in a large metro could have come from far or very far away.

@EroticaGood @mikejohansenmd @19joho 这是一个非常好的观点,重复的次数不够多,而且考虑到大型地铁区域也是旅游枢纽,在大型地铁中发现的早期爆发可能来自很远或很远的地方。远处。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud Also, you are again giving some numbers I can't find. OWID says China reported 2 deaths in 2021, not zero. Roughly IFR=0.01%. If you manage to avoid the most vulnerable getting infected this is quite plausible, but is also likely somewhat of an undercount as with most everywhere.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 另外,你又给出了一些我找不到的数字。 OWID 表示,中国在 2021 年报告了 2 人死亡,而不是零。大致 IFR=0.01%。如果您设法避免最脆弱的人被感染,这是很合理的,但也可能与大多数地方一样被低估了。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud "Zero" may be implausible, but it's not that far off from what you would expect for 20000 cases, even if only MOST are young/vaccinated.
Australia reported 3 deaths from Nov 2020 to Jul 2021 with little vaccination. There were 3000 cases but that's likely more of an undercount.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud “零”可能令人难以置信,但与您对 20000 例病例的预期相差不远,即使只有大多数人是年轻/接种疫苗的。
从 2020 年 11 月到 2021 年 7 月,澳大利亚报告了 3 人死亡,几乎没有接种疫苗。有 3000 起案件,但这可能更多的是低估了。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud Okay I just looked this up. The IFR for the original virus with no immunity at age 30 is about 1/5000. With vaccination it should be much lower. I don't find a few deaths out of 20k cases implausible, but looking at case ages if reported would improve the analysis.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 好的,我刚刚查了一下。 30岁没有免疫力的原始病毒的IFR约为1/5000。接种疫苗后应该会低很多。我发现 20k 病例中没有几例死亡令人难以置信,但如果报告病例年龄,则可以改进分析。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud And to be clear, neither six month period has actual zero. It's a single digit, but not actual zero.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 需要明确的是,六个月的时间段都没有实际为零。这是一个数字,但不是实际的零。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud How much more than zero? 20000 over a six month period is around 100 per day. Most days (by far) should be zero, no?

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 比零多多少?在六个月的时间里,20000 是每天 100 左右。大多数天(到目前为止)应该为零,不是吗?

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud How many deaths would you expect for 20000 cases in a highly vaccinated population with frequent mass testing and enforced isolation? (The relevance of the latter being few long transmission chains and cases will mostly be in the most connected, likely younger/healthier.)

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 在频繁进行大规模检测和强制隔离的高度接种疫苗的人群中,您预计 20000 例病例会有多少死亡? (后者的相关性是很少有长的传播链和病例,主要是联系最紧密,可能更年轻/更健康。)

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud How does this differ from, say, Australia in 2020-2021?

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 这与 2020-2021 年的澳大利亚有何不同?

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud Looks like 600-ish to me.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 对我来说看起来像 600-ish。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud I'm not sure where that comes from. I see about 600 deaths in April on the cumulative chart. I also remember them being reported in (more or less) real time during the Shanghai outbreak.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 我不确定它来自哪里。我在累积图表上看到 4 月份约有 600 人死亡。我还记得在上海爆发期间(或多或少)实时报告了它们。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud Where are you getting these numbers?
Ourworldindata reports 5 deaths during that time period and about 40k cases until March 2022 when cases increased dramatically, with deaths then increasing in April 2022.

@GidMK @TRyanGregory @YouAreLobbyLud 你从哪里得到这些数字?
Ourworldindata 报告在此期间有 5 人死亡,大约 4 万例,直到 2022 年 3 月病例急剧增加,随后死亡人数在 2022 年 4 月增加。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@ChristosArgyrop @nailatrahman Not long

Similar to BQ.1.1, XBB also escapes Evusheld and Bebtelovimab. BU.1, BR.2, BM.1.1.1, CA.1, and XBB all displayed sufficient hACE2 binding capability.

发表时间:5个月前 作者:Yunlong Richard Cao @yunlong_cao

@ChristosArgyrop @nailatrahman 不长

与 BQ.1.1 类似,XBB 也逃脱了 Evusheld 和 Bebtelovimab。 BU.1、BR.2、BM.1.1.1、CA.1 和 XBB 均显示出足够的 hACE2 结合能力。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@gregggonsalves You can absolutely blame a POLICY MAKER for POLICIES which encouraged infections, including their own.

@gregggonsalves 您绝对可以将鼓励感染的政策归咎于政策制定者,包括他们自己的。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@CDCDirector Straight out of Great Barrington Declaration.

@CDCDirector 直接来自大巴灵顿宣言。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@JimRosenthal4 True in principle but the answer given by the administrator was still wrong.

@JimRosenthal4 原则上是正确的,但管理员给出的答案仍然是错误的。

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@FinchTH @CDCDirector The sad part is they do!
But the political leadership with large platforms won't amplify it.

@FinchTH @CDCDirector 可悲的是他们做到了!

发表时间:4个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情

@ghhughes @BernieDogs4 @amandalhu @Amal4Solutions @__philipn__ @Mrhockey1231 @apmalong @michael_hoerger @CovidCanada1 @trendless @LazarusLong13 Probably could fix it with silicone glue.

@ghhughes @BernieDogs4 @amandalhu @Amal4Solutions @__philipn__ @Mrhockey1231 @apmalong @michael_hoerger @CovidCanada1 @trendless @LazarusLong13 可能可以用硅胶固定。

发表时间:5个月前 作者:aeon @AeonCoin详情