@DFisman I don't think the old pre-mitigation R estimates are on the site any more but can be found at https://archive.org/

@DFisman我认为旧的缓解前R估计值已不在现场，但可以在https://archive.org/

@DFisman It probably had considerably higher R in Wuhan. The model at https://covid19-projections.co... (which was very accurate early on) had NYC at around 6. That's 1->46k infections in a month. Something in that range is plausible.

@DFisman It在武汉的R可能要高得多。模型位于https://covid19-projections.co...（这在早期是非常准确的）纽约市在6点左右。这是1->；一个月内感染4.6万例。在这个范围内的某些东西是合理的。

@james1chas3 @alexmeshkin @ZiikZiiii @mildanalyst It also may mean there was a study that didn't reach statistical significance. Which is absolutely still evidence.

@james1chas3@alexmeshkin@Zikziiii@mildanalyst这也可能意味着有一项研究没有达到统计学意义。这绝对是证据。

@muzzledoyster @FoxNews Last 3-4 months, usually the candidates are known and it is a two-way race. Still polls can swing quite a bit. It's quite rare that either candidate can be said to not have a legitimate chance during at least some of that period.

@福克斯新闻（FoxNews）的muzzledoyster最近3-4个月，通常候选人是众所周知的，这是一场双向比赛。然而，民意调查可能会有很大的变化。两位候选人中的任何一位都可以说至少在这段时间内没有合法的机会，这是非常罕见的。

@TheConfusion @IMNOTYELLING @arendbayer @adamjkucharski Perhaps I was not clear. Getting both booster and infection is absolutely true. Twice a year not so many, but I don't think we have good data on this yet.

@Confusion@IMNOTYELLING@arendbayer@adamjkucharski也许我不清楚。同时得到助推器和感染是绝对正确的。一年两次并不多，但我认为我们在这方面还没有好的数据。

@muzzledoyster @FoxNews Well before sure. But there's rarely an election that is even static (by polls/odds) during final months of the campaign. A lot changes even in three months, much less 2-2.5 years.

@福克斯新闻（FoxNews）的muzzledoyster早就确定了。但在竞选的最后几个月，很少有哪怕是静态的选举（通过民意调查/赔率）。即使在三个月内，变化也很大，更不用说2-2.5年了。

@TheConfusion @IMNOTYELLING @arendbayer @adamjkucharski At this point, plenty of people are getting both.

@TheConfusion@IMNOTYELLING@arendbayer@adamjkucharski在这一点上，很多人都得到了这两个。

@timor_888 @RyanSAdams 👏

“帝汶888”👏

@muzzledoyster @FoxNews He may be, but a lot can happen in 2.5 years. Prediction markets say he probably won't even run, but if he does he has a decent shot. If the election were held today, certainly not, but it isn't.

@FoxNews的muzzledoyster可能是，但2.5年内可能会发生很多事情。预测市场称，他甚至可能不会参选，但如果他参选，他有一个不错的机会。如果选举是今天举行的，当然不是，但不是。

@MRJenny8675309 @murrayjohnsonjr @Bob_Wachter Is there rebound seen in unvaccinated now (as opposed to during the trial, with a different variant)?

@MRJenny8675309@murrayjohnsonjr@Bob\u Wachter现在未接种疫苗的患者是否出现反弹（与试验期间相反，使用不同的变体）？

@CarDen1974 @SamirMadi01 @PeterAttiaMD No doubt. I'm sure secondary effects of falls are not good for you, especially if vulnerable. I still wonder if that's not the ONLY reason for this observed correlation.

@CarDen1974@SamirMadi01@PeterAtiamd毫无疑问。我相信跌倒的副作用对你没有好处，尤其是在容易受伤的情况下。我仍然想知道这是否不是观察到的这种相关性的唯一原因。

@FoxNews Maybe so, but you have zero credibility on the matter.

@福克斯新闻（FoxNews）或许如此，但你在这件事上没有任何可信度。

@semil Rising rates

@塞米尔上升率

@gadboit @juli_bg_bs Finally, LA County, specifically, is 89% of 12+ vaccinated (probably even higher for 30+ or 50+) and >95% of 65+. There just aren't many unvaxed to reach. But only 45% and 68% boosted.
Target the unvaxed is not clearly better for LA, just on the numbers.

@gadboit@juli\u bg\u bs最后，特别是洛杉矶县，在接种了12+疫苗的人群中占89%（30+或50+可能更高），并且；65岁以上的95%。没有负担的人不多。但只有45%和68%的增长。
针对洛杉矶来说，无税的目标并不明显更好，只是在数字上。

@gadboit @juli_bg_bs It may or may not be the most effective format (probably not the only ad they run either). As I said, you can't necessarily microtarget that way. The guy in the ad may be healthy (of course, we don't really know, it isn't stated), the people being reached may not be.

@gadboit@juli\u bg\u bs它可能是也可能不是最有效的格式（可能不是他们运行的唯一广告）。正如我所说的，你不一定能用这种方式瞄准微目标。广告中的人可能很健康（当然，我们真的不知道，也没有说明），被联系的人可能不健康。

@gadboit @pmcdunnough @juli_bg_bs That's not up to LA Public Health. They can only work with what they have.

@gadboit@pmcdunnough@juli\u bg\u bs这不符合洛杉矶公共卫生。他们只能利用现有资源。

@gadboit @juli_bg_bs How do you know? There are certainly some unboosted who clearly benefit from being boosted. Even if you think boosters are completely useless to some, you can't necessarily microtarget that well.

@gadboit@juli\u bg\u bs你怎么知道的？当然，也有一些未受约束的人显然从提振中受益。即使你认为助推器对某些人完全无用，你也不一定能很好地瞄准微目标。

@gadboit @juli_bg_bs It's not at all clear the remaining unvaxed are movable to any meaningful degree, even if the benefit of doing so is 10x greater or whatever. Those already vaxed/unboosted are probably more movable.

@gadboit@juli\u bg\u bs目前还不清楚剩余的未征税者是否可以在任何有意义的程度上移动，即使这样做的好处是10倍或更大。那些已经变音/未变音的可能更容易移动。

@danaludwig @yaneerbaryam Maybe just poorly constructed and ineffective from the start.

@danaludwig@yaneerbaryam可能从一开始就结构不良、效率低下。

@SimonHume17 @Steviesword @YouAreLobbyLud Have a great day.

@SimonHume17@Steviesword@YouAreLobbyLud祝你有一个美好的一天。