@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal I can't really intuit how much of OVERALL transmission happens where. I can look at a place and say "Transmission happens here!" with some confidence. Not the same thing, though.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal我真的无法直觉地知道整个传输有多少发生在哪里。我可以看着一个地方说：“传播发生在这里！”带着一些自信。不过，情况不一样。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal We could, but only if the portion of transmission that happens in the highest transmission settings is high. If the distribution is flatter, then it wouldn't help that much.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal我们可以，但前提是在最高传输设置下发生的传输部分较高。如果分布更平坦，那就没什么帮助了。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal (At least I don't. There might be studies. The Stanford modeling study of early 2020 said that a lot took place in hospitality and crowded urban grocery stores. That's the only one I know of that sort-of address it.)

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal（至少我没有。可能有研究。斯坦福大学2020年初的建模研究表明，很多事情发生在酒店业和拥挤的城市杂货店。这是我所知道的唯一一个这样的地址。）

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal Still, the problem here is that WE DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH OF OVERALL TRANSMISSION TAKES PLACE IN THESE SPECIFIC SETTINGS.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal尽管如此，这里的问题是，我们不知道在这些特定设置中，总传输量有多少。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal Ceiling fan(s) and UVGI might be enough, and both quiet and low energy usage.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal吊扇和UVGI可能就足够了，而且既安静又低能耗。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal Running them on high to get max CADR is pretty loud, although I guess it depends on the classroom details. Probably need more run on lower speed.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal将它们放在高处以获得最大CADR的声音相当大，尽管我猜这取决于课堂细节。可能需要在较低速度下进行更多跑步。

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal That's little kids that stay in one classroom. The bigger kids are having several hour-long 20-30 person "dinner parties" every day, plus the actual literal "lunch party" everyday.

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal这是一个教室里的孩子。大一点的孩子每天都会有几个小时的20-30人的“晚宴”，外加每天字面上的“午餐派对”。

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal You can reason on some of it through.
For example, schools (if not having very good ventilation, etc.) just have to be worse. It's 20-30 kids from different households packed in for hours every day vs usually fewer people from fewer households for a few hours maybe 1/wk or such.

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal你可以通过一些理由进行推理。
例如，学校（如果没有很好的通风等）只能更糟。每天有20-30个来自不同家庭的孩子挤在一起呆上几个小时，而通常只有少数家庭的孩子挤在一起呆上几个小时，可能是每周一周左右。

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal Oh, I definitely agree with "maybe, maybe not"

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal噢，我完全同意“也许，也许不”

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal I don't agree. Maybe your social circle and life experience is different but in mine people don't have large dinner parties at home very often. They definitely do, it's just not regular and ongoing, which is what you need for high transmission.

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal我不同意。也许你的社交圈和生活经历有所不同，但在我国，人们并不经常在家里举行大型晚宴。他们肯定会这样做，只是不是经常性的和持续的，这是你需要的高传输。

@snydervegas @TRyanGregory The word age does not appear in that post. Now go compare the population ages in these two countries and get back to us.

@snydervegas@TRyanGregory该帖子中没有年龄这个词。现在去比较一下这两个国家的人口年龄，然后再联系我们。

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal I guess some workplaces are pretty packed-in too, more so than just the usual office cubes say.

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal我想有些工作场所也很拥挤，不仅仅是普通的办公室立方体所说的那样。

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal And then there are the truly super-duper-spreader environments, where MANY people are truly packed in. Concerts, crowded hospitality, peak transit, etc. Transmitting to a couple of friends at dinner at home is much less than transmitting to 100. But still hard to know the balance

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal，然后是真正的超级duper撒布器环境，在那里许多人都能真正融入其中。音乐会、拥挤的接待、高峰交通等。在家里吃饭时向朋友发送信息要比向100发送信息少得多。但仍然很难知道平衡

@RidleyDM @FinchTH @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal Strangers isn't really the point. School and workplace isn't strangers but it also isn't at home. People have big events at home (holidays, etc.), but generally not that frequently. The short answer is we don't know.

@RidleyDM@FinchTH@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal陌生人并不是重点。学校和工作场所并不陌生，但也不在家。人们在家里有重大活动（节假日等），但通常不会那么频繁。简而言之，我们不知道。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal 10 is not ambitious at all using UV, BTW.
"Our results indicated that the equivalent ventilation rate attributable to upper-room UVGI for BCG aerosols ranged from 1 ACH to 22 ACH"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

@顺便说一句，FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal 10使用UV一点也不雄心勃勃。
“我们的结果表明，卡介苗气雾剂的上室UVGI等效通气率范围为1 ACH至22 ACH”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

@moskov @Noahpinion @mattyglesias My CSSR is that you need pain (layoffs, cancelled travel, reduced product shipments). I don't see it happening without a recession.

@莫斯科@Noahpinion@mattyglesias我的CSSR是你需要痛苦（裁员、取消旅行、减少产品发货）。我认为，没有经济衰退，这种情况是不会发生的。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal The big question to me is how much essentially eliminating superspreading reduces overall transmission because we can certainly do the latter.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal对我来说，最大的问题是，从根本上消除超级传播会在多大程度上减少总体传播，因为我们当然可以做到后者。

@FinchTH @RidleyDM @jvmlost @coolpix_jpg @cre8iverenewal I'm not sure how they got to 6 but you can certainly get from 6 to 10 by adding portable air cleaners, even not particularly loud ones, don't even need UV. But UV is probably better, in some sense.

@FinchTH@RidleyDM@jvmlost@coolpix\u jpg@cre8iverenewal我不确定他们是如何达到6的，但通过添加便携式空气滤清器，你当然可以从6到10，即使不是特别响亮的，甚至不需要紫外线。但在某种意义上，紫外线可能更好。

@Noahpinion @moskov @mattyglesias Here's the thing though. Moving one curve means moving along the other curve. Economists have no rock solid answer to tell us how, if, or how much interest rates are going to move each curve. Back to common sense soft reasoning.

@Noahpinion@moskov@mattyglesias但事情是这样的。移动一条曲线意味着沿着另一条曲线移动。经济学家没有可靠的答案来告诉我们利率将如何、是否或在多大程度上改变每条曲线。回到常识软推理。

@Noahpinion @moskov @mattyglesias Moving on the curve vs shifting the curve is one of the few things that economists actually understand better than people using common sense.

@Noahpinion@moskov@mattyglesias在曲线上移动vs改变曲线是经济学家实际上比使用常识的人更了解的少数事情之一。