Aeon 的最新消息
@3vanSutton @chargrille @Airbnb Still wrong but probably most of these hosts are not pervs, they're paranoid about property damage, parties, etc. Also not clear how often it actually happens vs. one anon posting unverified pictures on twitter.
@3vanSutton@chargrill@Airbnb仍然是错误的，但可能这些主持人中的大多数都不是变态狂，他们对财产损失、派对等持偏执态度。也不清楚这种情况实际发生的频率，而不是一个人在推特上发布未经验证的照片。
@Dakota_150 "That was after they had diligently followed COVID-19 safety measures for more than two years, avoiding high-risk situations"
This part is bullshit. He's posted about going to restaurants and maskless activities (including his wife's conference) because "cases are low".
@Dakota\u 150“这是在他们努力遵守2019冠状病毒疾病安全措施两年多之后，避免了高风险情况”
这部分是胡说八道。他张贴了关于去餐馆和无面具活动（包括他妻子的会议）的帖子，因为“案件很少”。
@dianaberrent Part of the reason may be supply. With hundreds of millions potentially with LC there is zero chance of enough Paxlovid being available (particularly if, plausibly. LC treatment requires a long course). TPTB want to preserve it to protect hospital capacity.
@dianaberrent的部分原因可能是供应不足。由于有数亿人可能患有LC，因此获得足够Paxlovid的可能性为零（特别是如果LC治疗需要很长的疗程，这似乎是合理的）。TPTB希望保留它以保护医院容量。
@SerpinaLonghaul @thane_black @UCSF It was predictable and predicted.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob_Wachter Reported case rate of 10/100k/day is not "low". Assume 1/8 cases reported, as suggested by @ScottGottliebMD, that's actually 80/100k/day, or 2400/100k/month i.e. 2.4%. In some abstract sense that might be "low" but if you keep doing that repeatedly, you're going to get covid.
发表时间：4年前 作者：aeon @AeonCoin@SerpinaLonghaul@thane\u black@加州大学旧金山分校这是可以预测和预测的。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob\u Wachter报告的10万/天的病例率并不“低”。根据ScottGoldlieBMD的建议，假设报告了1/8的病例，实际上是每天80/10万，或每月2400/10万，即2.4%。从某种抽象的意义上讲，这可能是“低”的，但如果你反复这样做，你就会感染新冠病毒。
@SerpinaLonghaul @thane_black @UCSF Correct
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob_Wachter The odds of any ONE waiter or line-mate may be "negligible", but what matters is accumulated risk. If you encounter 5-10 such people per day and each is contagious for 10 days, then 10-20/100k turns about 1% risk of such an encounter PER DAY or about 30% per month.
发表时间：4年前 作者：aeon @AeonCoin@SerpinaLonghaul@thane\u black@加州大学旧金山分校正确
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob\u Wachter任何一个服务员或线人的几率可能“微不足道”，但重要的是累积风险。如果你每天遇到5-10个这样的人，并且每个人都有10天的传染性，那么10-20/10万人每天遇到这种人的风险约为1%，或者每月约为30%。
@HFentonMudd @thane_black @UCSF Yes and HE'S STILL DOING IT.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob_Wachter The odds of any ONE waiter or line-mate may be "negligible", but what matters is accumulated risk. If you encounter 5-10 such people per day and each is contagious for 10 days, then 10-20/100k turns about 1% risk of such an encounter PER DAY or about 30% per month.
发表时间：4年前 作者：aeon @AeonCoin@HFentonMudd@thane\u black@加州大学旧金山分校是的，他还在做。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob\u Wachter任何一个服务员或线人的几率可能“微不足道”，但重要的是累积风险。如果你每天遇到5-10个这样的人，并且每个人都有10天的传染性，那么10-20/10万人每天遇到这种人的风险约为1%，或者每月约为30%。
@JoannaInNY_MPH @thane_black @UCSF Indeed. He's consistently erred on the side of overly- rosy interpretation of statistics, ignoring repeated risks, and wishful thinking about "normalcy" being safe.
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob_Wachter Reported case rate of 10/100k/day is not "low". Assume 1/8 cases reported, as suggested by @ScottGottliebMD, that's actually 80/100k/day, or 2400/100k/month i.e. 2.4%. In some abstract sense that might be "low" but if you keep doing that repeatedly, you're going to get covid.
发表时间：4年前 作者：aeon @AeonCoin@Joannanny\u英里/小时@thane\u black@加州大学旧金山分校。他一贯错误地对统计数据做出过于乐观的解释，忽视重复的风险，一厢情愿地认为“正常”是安全的。
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...
@Bob\u Wachter报告的10万/天的病例率并不“低”。根据ScottGoldlieBMD的建议，假设报告了1/8的病例，实际上是每天80/10万，或每月2400/10万，即2.4%。从某种抽象的意义上讲，这可能是“低”的，但如果你反复这样做，你就会感染新冠病毒。
@Bob_Wachter If we take the UCSF number (5700/100k) as a sum over 15 days (i.e. infected will test positive for 15 days), the ratio between actual infections and reported cases (55/100k) is about 7x. If asymptomatic period is shorter, ratio is higher, perhaps approaching NY study of 30x.
@Bob\u Wachter如果我们将加州大学旧金山分校的数字（5700/100k）作为15天内的总和（即感染者将在15天内检测呈阳性），那么实际感染与报告病例（55/100k）之间的比率约为7倍。如果无症状期较短，比率较高，可能接近纽约研究的30倍。
@Bob_Wachter This assumes the cited 10-20/100k is the "real" rate, not the reported rate. Reported rate would have to be MUCH lower, maybe 1-3/100k (maybe even lower as reported testing fades away, assuming there even are any meaningful reports at all).
@Bob\u Wachter这假设引用的10-20/100k是“实际”费率，而不是报告的费率。报告的比率必须低得多，可能是1-3/100k（如果有任何有意义的报告，随着报告的测试逐渐消失，可能会更低）。
@Bob_Wachter The odds of any ONE waiter or line-mate may be "negligible", but what matters is accumulated risk. If you encounter 5-10 such people per day and each is contagious for 10 days, then 10-20/100k turns about 1% risk of such an encounter PER DAY or about 30% per month.
@Bob\u Wachter任何一个服务员或线人的几率可能“微不足道”，但重要的是累积风险。如果你每天遇到5-10个这样的人，并且每个人都有10天的传染性，那么10-20/10万人每天遇到这种人的风险约为1%，或者每月约为30%。
@Marco_Piani @GearoidReidy Interesting discussion from a law professor here claiming that Japan could have locked down if it wanted to. There may be some play between actual can't and a government claiming it can't for its own political reasons. I'm sure there are other views.
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/...
@Marco\u Piani@GearoidReidy一位法学教授在这里进行了一场有趣的讨论，他声称，如果日本愿意，它本可以锁定。在实际的“不能”和政府出于自身的政治原因声称“不能”之间可能会有一些博弈。我相信还有其他观点。
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/...
@myrabatchelder @DeadlineWH @AshishKJha46 @NicolleDWallace Another thing to note here is lack of follow up. He didn't answer the question. She asked about long covid and he talked about ICUs.
@MyraBatcheld@DeadlineWH@AshishKJha46@NicoledWallace这里需要注意的另一件事是缺乏跟进。他没有回答这个问题。她问起了long covid，他谈到了ICU。