4. Though I 100% stand by my comment that "the internet of money should not cost more than 5 cents per transaction". That was the goal in 2017, and it's still the goal now. It's precisely why we're spending so much time working on scalability.
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/c...
4.尽管我100%支持我的评论，即“货币互联网每笔交易的成本不应超过5美分”。这是2017年的目标，也是现在的目标。这正是我们花费大量时间研究可伸缩性的原因。
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/c...
But what was my core underlying mistake? IMO it's that I deeply underestimated the complexity of software development, and the diff between a python PoC and a proper production impl. 2014-era ideas were waaay too complex, eg. "12-dimensional hypercubes":
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014... https://t.co/0FNf6BY9sE
但我的核心潜在错误是什么？在我看来，我深深低估了软件开发的复杂性，以及python PoC和适当的生产impl之间的差异。2014年的想法太复杂了，例如“12维超立方体”：
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014... https://t.co/0FNf6BY9sE
3. My projections from 2015 of when we will get PoS and sharding. Honestly, these were very wrong and worth laughing at; I'll share a screenshot of one of my presentations from 2015 so everyone can laugh more easily. https://t.co/6tbsmajJyu
3.我对2015年我们将获得PoS和切分的预测。老实说，这些都是非常错误的，值得嘲笑；我将分享2015年我的一个演示文稿的屏幕截图，这样每个人都可以更轻松地笑。https://t.co/6tbsmajJyu
2. This piece from 2013 on the consequences of Bitcoin services becoming more "regulated":
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/cu...
Core argument: Bitcoin is resisting the government not by being clever about what *legal category* it's in, but rather by being technologically censorship-proof. https://t.co/xXHbf83f5U
2.2013年关于比特币服务变得更加“规范”的后果的文章：
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/cu...
核心论点：比特币之所以抵制政府，并不是因为它在什么“法律范畴”上很聪明，而是因为它在技术上能证明审查制度。https://t.co/xXHbf83f5U
My views today: sure, Bitcoin's decentralization would let it still *survive* under a super-hostile regulatory climate, but it could not *thrive*. Successful censorship resistance strategy requires a combination of technological robustness and public legitimacy.
我今天的观点是：当然，比特币的分散化可以让它在极端敌对的监管环境下“生存”，但它无法“繁荣”。成功的抵制审查战略需要技术稳健性和公共合法性的结合。
1. In 2013, I wrote this piece on "how Bitcoin can actually help Iranians and Argentinians". The core point: Bitcoin's key benefit is internationality and censorship resistance, NOT "the 21m limit". I predicted stablecoins will prosper.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/cu... https://t.co/UO9ojfzYEa
1.2013年，我写了一篇关于“比特币如何真正帮助伊朗人和阿根廷人”的文章。核心观点：比特币的主要好处是国际化和抵制审查，而不是“2100万限制”。我预测stablecoins会繁荣起来。
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/cu... https://t.co/UO9ojfzYEa
Last week, I actually went to Argentina! My verdict: generally correct. Cryptocurrency adoption is high but stablecoin adoption is really high too; lots of businesses operate in USDT. Though of course, if USD itself starts showing more problems this could change.
上周，我真的去了阿根廷！我的结论是：大体正确。加密货币的采用率很高，但stablecoin的采用率也很高；许多企业在USDT运营。当然，如果美元本身开始出现更多问题，这种情况可能会改变。
Happy new year!
Today, a mini-tweetstorm of some of the things I've said and written over the past decade, and what I think about those subjects today.
新年快乐！
今天，我在推特上发布了过去十年来我所说和写的一些事情，以及我今天对这些主题的看法。