Aeon 的最新消息
@OptimisticCon If a million people in part of NYC (Bronx is 1.4M so pretty close) have 300 infections (30/100k) or a million people in Montana has 300 infections, it is the same level of transmission. Doesn't mean every single other aspect of the situation is the same, but transmission is.
@乐观主义Con如果纽约市部分地区有100万人(布朗克斯区与140万人非常接近)感染了300例(30/10万),或者蒙大拿州有100万人感染了300例,那么传播水平是相同的。这并不意味着情况的所有其他方面都是一样的,但传播是一样的。
@OptimisticCon It is essentially the same when all the counties have similar levels. If it is only one county, then perhaps no big deal. If it doesn't spread to others, it'll burn out and go down
NYC has roughly the same hospital beds per capita as Montana. Cases per 100k is consistent enough.
@乐观主义者当所有的县都有相似的水平时,它本质上是相同的。如果一个县没什么大不了的话。如果它不传播给其他人,它就会燃烧殆尽并消失
纽约市的人均医院床位与蒙大拿州大致相同。每100k病例数足够一致。
@OptimisticCon Just combine all the counties in a region. Same difference for the most part.
If you had one odd country with high surrounded by low you could argue it's an outlier due to low denominator. But that's not what is happening most places.
@乐观主义者只是把一个地区的所有县合并起来。大多数情况下都是一样的。
如果你有一个奇怪的国家,高的被低的包围,你可能会说这是一个低分母的异常值。但大多数地方都不是这样。
@OptimisticCon To take Montana as an example, nearly every county in the state is substantial or high. If you just add them up into one million-person population, it's going to come out substantial or high and that's no different from the same color in a high pop county somewhere else.
@乐观主义以蒙大拿州为例,该州几乎每个县都是高收入或高收入的。如果你把他们加在一百万人口中,结果会是相当可观或很高的,这与其他地方流行程度高的县的相同颜色没有什么不同。
@OptimisticCon If it is a one time event then it wouldn't be, but that's not the case when you look at 100 counties in a state and they're all high. They didn't all have one-time events, they're just all spreading lots of virus between and within counties.
@乐观主义者如果这是一次性事件,那就不会了,但如果你看看一个州的100个县,它们都很高,情况就不是这样了。他们并不是都有一次性事件,他们只是在各县之间和县内传播大量病毒。
@OptimisticCon Look to make clear, 30 infections out of say 100 people would absolutely be extremely high. It's rampant in that population. 30 infections per day in a rural county (say 10k) if it is consistent over time is likewise high.
@乐观主义者希望弄清楚,100人中有30人的感染率绝对会非常高。它在那群人中很猖獗。一个农村县每天30例感染(比如10万例),如果持续时间长,感染率同样高。
@jklmd123 @denise_dewald @BeBetterImagine The fact that all the bots in this and every similar thread are loudly proclaiming WW3 is interesting though I suppose could be interpreted different ways.
@jklmd123@denise_dewald@BeBetterImagine这个事实,所有的机器人在这个和每一个类似的线程都大声宣布第三次世界大战是有趣的,尽管我想可能会有不同的解释。
@OptimisticCon There are exceptions, say Missouri. The patchwork between yellow and orange suggests possibly exaggerated rounding error. But other places like FL, AZ, CO, and many others, it doesn't matter that the counties are small, still high.
@密苏里州说,乐观主义者也有例外。黄色和橙色之间的拼凑表明可能存在夸大的舍入误差。但其他地方,比如佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州和其他许多地方,县小、县高并不重要。
@OptimisticCon Not correct. Another way to look at it, is that if this were rounding error exaggerated by small pop, there would be many of those small rural counties with unusual LOW levels (i.e. zero). You can combine 10 small counties to make it comparable. No difference in color generally.
@乐观主义并不正确。从另一个角度来看,如果这是小波普夸大的舍入误差,那么许多农村小县的水平会非常低(即零)。你可以将10个小县合并,使其具有可比性。颜色一般没有差别。
@OptimisticCon Furthermore, these are all 7 day averages. A few cases showing up on one day would not result in a very high average even in a small county unless it happens repeatedly over the course of a week. Again, lots of virus about.
@此外,这些都是7天的平均值。即使是在一个小县里,一天出现的少数病例也不会导致非常高的平均值,除非在一周内反复发生。再一次,很多关于病毒的报道。
@OptimisticCon Dozens or even handfuls of cases in a small county, say population 10k is NOT a small number. In such a small county it would be easily possible to have zero reported cases, and this has happened in the past. It doesn't happen much now because there is a LOT of virus about.
@乐观主义者认为,在一个小县里,10万人口并不是一个小数字。在这样一个小的县,很容易就没有报告病例,而这在过去已经发生过。现在这种情况发生得不多,因为有很多病毒。
@SprkJoy4BtrDays @DailyJLee @DrEricDing The persistence is long enough that sitting out doesn't look like it would help much. You need to wash, disinfect (I wouldn't use chemicals w/food, even the packaging), or repackage. Reaerosolization is possible in general. For groceries, I don't know. Wear a mask when handling.
@SprkJoy4BtrDays@DailyJLee@drericing持续时间足够长,因此坐在外面似乎没有多大帮助。你需要清洗、消毒(我不会使用含食物的化学品,甚至包装),或者重新包装。一般来说,再气溶胶化是可能的。至于杂货,我不知道。搬运时戴上口罩。
@happyhexer @BarstoolBT @linseymarr @LaurenPelley I would never use toxic agents on food, even packaging (because you can easily contaminate the food later). Yes to washing with food safe soap or shedding packaging.
@happyhever@BarstoolBT@linseymarr@LaurenPelley我永远不会在食物上使用有毒物质,甚至是包装(因为你以后很容易污染食物)。是的,可以用食品安全的肥皂或脱落的包装清洗。
@happyhexer @BarstoolBT @linseymarr @LaurenPelley Risk may still be low, BTW, but this does suggest that risk after ~1 day is a LOT higher in relative terms than with the ancestral strain. It doesn't seem like sticking to dogma is the best idea.
@顺便说一句,Happyhever@BarstoolBT@linseymarr@LaurenPelley的风险可能仍然很低,但这确实表明~1天后的风险相对而言比祖先菌株高得多。似乎坚持教条不是最好的主意。