@tnicholsmd @RadioFreeTom Or maybe 31 fold? I don't think we can assume this survey is correct at all, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, or especially that 8 fold may be quite low. 8 fold was probably a reasonable estimate during previous surges with much more test reporting.
https://twitter.com/epi_dude/s...
1. In our new (not yet peer reviewed) pre-print on NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, in a population-representative sample, we estimated SARS-CoV-2 prevalence to be 22.1% during April 23-May 8 (about 1.8M adults). About 31 times the official case count. https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...
发表时间:4年前 作者:Denis Nash @epi_dude@tnicholsmd@RadioFreeTom还是31倍?我认为我们根本不能假设这项调查是正确的,但我不会马上否定它,尤其是8倍可能相当低。在之前的浪涌期间,8倍可能是一个合理的估计,有更多的测试报告。
https://twitter.com/epi_dude/s...
1、在我们新的(尚未同行评审)预印的纽约市BA中。2个/年。2.12.1激增,在一个具有人口代表性的样本中,我们估计4月23日至5月8日期间SARS-CoV-2的流行率为22.1%(约180万成年人)。大约是官方统计的31倍。https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...