@antoniogm Isn't that like every state?

@antoniogm这不是每个州都一样吗？

@olga_basso @MeetJess @RomainMartinIO These regional planes crash a lot more than mainline carriers, IIRC. Likely due to already-low standards of training and experience.

@olga\u basso@MeetJess@RomainMartinIO这些支线飞机坠毁的次数远远超过了干线航空公司IIRC。可能是因为培训和经验的标准已经很低。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 As such, the contribution of everyday, public, school, and workplace activities, which was already quite high as suggested by the paper, would be even higher without such mitigations. (Also, a significant period of time measured, schools were just closed, including for summer).

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218因此，日常、公共、学校和工作场所活动的贡献，正如论文所建议的，已经相当高了，如果没有这些缓解措施，贡献将更高。（此外，在相当长的一段时间内，学校刚刚关闭，包括夏季）。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 Finally, this was all measured in 2020, with significant mitigations in other activities (not just "stay-at-home" which is referenced in the paper, but de-densification, work from home, remote/hybrid school, masking, physical distancing in public venues, etc.).

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218最后，这一切都是在2020年衡量的，其他活动（不仅仅是论文中提到的“呆在家里”，还有去密度化、在家工作、远程/混合学校、掩蔽、公共场所的物理距离等）都有显著缓解。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 There is at least one other unsupported leap you are making, which is that increased birthday risk corresponds with "private gatherings". But in fact many birthday-associated activities are outside the home, such as restaurants, bars, fun activities, shopping, travel, etc.

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218至少还有一个不受支持的飞跃，那就是增加生日风险与“私人聚会”相对应。但事实上，许多与生日相关的活动都是在家外进行的，如餐馆、酒吧、趣味活动、购物、旅游等。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 In fact, everyday activities (school, work, travel+transit, restaurants, shopping, etc.) account for the vast majority of aggregate risk, simply because they are significant, likely similar order of magnitude per unit time, and account for a lot more time.

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218事实上，日常活动（学校、工作、旅行+交通、餐馆、购物等）占了总风险的绝大多数，原因很简单，因为它们很重要，每单位时间的数量级可能相似，并且占了更多的时间。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 Yes it is true that people have other sorts of events that increase risk, but how often? If comparable events were happening all the time, there would be no increase from birthdays!

@马修·戴维德（MatthewDavidH）@\u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218是的，人们确实有其他类型的事件会增加风险，但多久发生一次？如果类似的事件一直都在发生，那么从生日开始就不会增加！

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @ibrake4ants @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 No it doesn't!
It shows that having a household birthday within the past two weeks increases background risk by 30%. But that is only during two weeks of the year. For an average household size of 2.5, that's 5 weeks out of 52, for a net risk impact of 3%!

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@ibrake4ants@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218不，不是！
研究表明，在过去两周内过一个家庭生日会增加30%的背景风险。但这只是一年中的两周。对于平均家庭规模为2.5的家庭，这是52个星期中的5个星期，净风险影响为3%！

@poiThePoi @out2sea90210 @_ohcoco_ @evolutionarypsy The benefit were ample, at least initially, but rolling them out was incredibly problematic. That's what sent people into enormous food lines. Some people got NO payments for months.

@poiThePoi@out2sea90210@\u ohcoco\uu@evolutionarypsy至少在最初，其收益是充足的，但推广它们却存在着令人难以置信的问题。这就是为什么人们要排队购买大量食物。有些人几个月没有收到付款。

@ibrake4ants @_stah @MatthewDavidH @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 If you search for "school aranet4" you can see a lot of numbers and graphs. Some are good, many are not.
School busses sometimes high too. Again, this is a daily exposure when applicable, not one or two big holiday meals per year.

@ibrake4ants@u stah@MatthewDavidH@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218如果你搜索“school aranet4”，你会看到很多数字和图表。有些是好的，很多不是。
校车有时也很高。同样，如果适用，这是一种日常接触，而不是每年一顿或两顿大餐。

@_stah @ibrake4ants @MatthewDavidH @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 (Sure, when you do have that large household gathering, open windows, run filters, take it outside if possible, etc. But it is still a rarity compared to all day 5 days every week.)

@_stah@ibrake4ants@MatthewDavidH@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218（当然，当你有那么大的家庭聚会时，打开窗户，运行过滤器，如果可能的话，把它带到外面去，等等。但与每周5天的全天工作相比，这仍然是一件罕见的事。）

@_stah @ibrake4ants @MatthewDavidH @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 Time is a huge factor. Size too. School/workplace easily dozens of people mixing. "Large" household gathering of comparable size = even less often than any hh gathering. Maybe 1-2 times per year max for most people.

@_stah@ibrake4ants@MatthewDavidH@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218时间是一个巨大的因素。大小也一样。学校/工作场所很容易让几十个人混在一起。规模相当的“大型”家庭聚会=甚至比任何hh聚会都少。大多数人每年最多1-2次。

@ibrake4ants @MatthewDavidH @_stah @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 Sure. Wherever you have "lots of people together for lots of time". Transit too. Not quite as many hours as a school or workplace, but signifiant. Some people commute 2h/day so that's 500h/year.

@ibrake4ants@MatthewDavidH@U stah@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218当然。无论你在哪里，“很多人在一起很多时间”。运输也一样。不像学校或工作场所那么多小时，但意义重大。有些人每天通勤2小时，因此每年通勤500小时。

@ibrake4ants @MatthewDavidH @_stah @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 You can shift that around somewhat with mitigations, but when you're at work 2000 hours/year and at holiday dinners or weddings 20 hours/year. Come on.

@ibrake4ants@MatthewDavidH@U stah@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218你可以通过缓解来改变这种情况，但当你每年工作2000小时，每年在假日晚餐或婚礼上工作20小时时。来吧

@ibrake4ants @MatthewDavidH @_stah @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 Work and school. I mean its mostly just a numbers game. Lots of people together for lots of time = spread.

@ibrake4ants@MatthewDavidH@U stah@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218工作和学校。我的意思是，这基本上只是一场数字游戏。很多人在一起呆了很长时间=分散。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 @ibrake4ants Here's the problem. Very often the answer to how some gets infected, say at a bar, is "unknown". When it happens (to several people) at a birthday party or wedding or holiday meal, they're all known to each other. So the latter is disproportionately recorded.

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218@ibrake4ants这是问题所在。很多时候，一些人是如何感染的，比如在酒吧，答案是“未知的”。当这件事发生在生日聚会、婚礼或假日晚餐上时（对几个人来说），他们彼此都知道。因此，后者被不成比例地记录下来。

@MatthewDavidH @_stah @jAndyGeorge @michael04121218 @ibrake4ants Sure those intersections definitely happens, but people have birthdays one a year, weddings one or a few times per lifetime. They go to work every single day, and many people go to work, bars, restaurants, shopping, transit, etc most days or at least once or twice per week.

@MatthewDavidH@u stah@jAndyGeorge@michael04121218@ibrake4ants肯定会发生这些交叉，但人们一年有一次生日，一生有一次或几次婚礼。他们每天都去上班，很多人每天都去上班、酒吧、餐馆、购物、交通等，或者每周至少去一到两次。

@Marco_Piani Grievance marketing.

@Marco\u Piani申诉营销。

@EmilDimanchev @nytimes Not a coincidence
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@EmilDimanchev@纽约时报不是巧合
https://twitter.com/AeonCoin/s...

@jfeldman_epi Circling back to "people who are trying to stay safe". These people aren't going to risky bars, restaurants, nightclubs, private parties, w/no masks. They are going to pharmacies, workplaces, using transit, etc. and it makes a big difference how safe THOSE places are.

@jfeldman_epi回到“试图保持安全的人”。这些人不会去冒险的酒吧、餐馆、夜总会、私人聚会，也不会戴面具。他们要去药店、工作场所、使用交通工具等，这些地方的安全程度有很大不同。