@Gothfarts1 @SixandLaura @denise_dewald Stock up on food and ammo. Enjoy the limited time left as much as possible.

@Gothfarts1@SixandLaura@denise_dewald储备食物和弹药。尽可能享受剩下的有限时间。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis Good question. This seems like another goalpost shifting. We started out talking about learning loss and claiming we "know" how that works, and now we're talking about something else entirely.
Perhaps it would be useful to better understand the learning part.

@David_LKaplan@sirgetagrip@greg_travis问得好。这似乎是另一个球门柱移动。我们一开始谈论学习损失，并声称我们“知道”这是怎么回事，现在我们谈论的完全是另一回事。
也许更好地理解学习部分是有用的。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis Not necessarily. Those can be assessed too.
Throwing up your hands and saying you can't assess at all but just "know" the answer is not clearly better at all than doing so imperfectly.

@David_LKaplan@sirgetagrip@greg_travis不一定。这些也可以评估。
举手说你根本无法评估，只是“知道”答案显然并不比不完美地评估要好。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis I don't think we need to be that silly.
Offer a program where kids will be chosen randomly to receive either a virtual education or an in-person education, or perhaps half year with each, and then swap, with assessments. If both seen as high quality, some will enroll.

@大卫•伊卡普兰@sirgetagrip@greg\u travis我认为我们没必要那么傻。
提供一个项目，随机选择孩子接受虚拟教育或亲身教育，或者每半年一次，然后交换评估。如果两者都被视为高质量，一些人会报名。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis There may not be. We then ought not be too certain about what we believe to be the case. It is easy to get subjective things wrong.

@大卫•伊卡普兰@sirgetagrip@greg\u travis那里可能没有。那么，我们不应该对我们认为的情况过于肯定。主观的东西很容易出错。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis That's not the same thing.
You need to take a population of kids, have some of them FROM THE SAME GROUP do in person and some do virtual. Then compare. Unless that has been done, the format itself isn't really being measured.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis这不是一回事。
你需要让一群孩子，让他们中的一些人亲自做，一些人做虚拟的。然后比较。除非这样做，否则格式本身并没有真正被衡量。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis Are there randomized controlled trials?
A lot of real world data is heavily confounded and doesn't say much about the actual TEACHING/FORMAT itself.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis是否有随机对照试验？
许多真实世界的数据非常混乱，并且没有说明实际的教学/格式本身。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis Yes, that's exactly what would be worth knowing.
In the group of parents who think their kid would do well with remote, or at least be willing to try it given the option, do the kids actually do better or worse or the same compared to in-person?

@David_LKaplan@sirgetagrip@greg_travis是的，这正是值得知道的。
在那些认为自己的孩子在远程教育方面会做得很好，或者至少愿意尝试远程教育的家长中，与面对面的家长相比，孩子们的表现是更好还是更差，还是相同？

@QasimRashid Listen to parents
https://news.vcu.edu/article/2... https://t.co/0yIpvgY0Nc

@卡西姆拉希德名单发给父母
https://news.vcu.edu/article/2... https://t.co/0yIpvgY0Nc

@PeterFaberSP @dan_diekema Wrong. All early treatments don't work once someone is in the hospital.

@彼得·巴伯斯·丹·迪克马错了。一旦有人住院，所有早期治疗都不起作用。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis I agree about cheating, but if the goal here is to understand virtual learning outside of a pandemic situation, you can easily have occasional in-person assessments but still do most daily classes remote.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis我同意作弊的说法，但是如果这里的目标是在流感大流行的情况下理解虚拟学习，那么你可以很容易地进行偶尔的亲自评估，但仍然可以进行大部分的日常远程课程。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis A study of opt-in virtual is perfectly valid, just not entirely generalizable. If kids with motivated parents do well with virtual, that's useful to know.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis一项关于虚拟选择的研究是完全有效的，只是不能完全推广。如果有积极的父母的孩子在虚拟环境中表现良好，了解这一点很有用。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis That's certainly some interesting subtlety. I don't think Greg's suggestion of more careful study of the matter is absurd at all.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis这当然是一些有趣的微妙之处。我认为格雷格建议对此事进行更仔细的研究一点也不荒谬。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis I have indeed taught math, but only at college level and it was not particularly recent. I don't claim this is relevant experience.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis我确实教过数学，但只是在大学阶段，而且不是最近才教的。我不认为这是相关的经验。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis Grades have a huge element of subjectivity and you know it. The whole purpose of these assessment exams is to try to avoid some of that subjectivity with a consistent yardstick. Of course, that has its own issues.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis成绩有很大的主观性，你知道这一点。这些评估考试的全部目的是试图用一致的标准来避免一些主观性。当然，这也有其自身的问题。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis I'm pretty sure it isn't universal. There have to be SOME students who are still performing on par, or in some cases better. Has anyone looked at why? What did those students do differently? Perhaps there are other factors at play besides "remote = bad".

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis我很确定它不是通用的。必须有一些学生仍然表现平平，或在某些情况下更好。有人看过为什么吗？那些学生做了什么不同的事？也许除了“远程=坏”之外，还有其他因素在起作用。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis Yes, and we ought to retain some healthy skepticism about something that wasn't measured, whatever the reason. A low of things that people "know" turn out not to be true once measures. See the claimed huge increase in suicides for example. When measured, the opposite.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis是的，我们应该对一些不可测量的东西保持一些健康的怀疑，不管是什么原因。人们“知道”的事情有一小部分一旦被测量出来就不是真的。比如说自杀人数的大幅增加。当测量时，情况正好相反。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis This sounds a lot like goalpost moving to me.
Conservatives claimed suicides were way up back in 2020. When that wasn't true at all (in fact the opposite), now the focus shifts to "mental illness and service needs". Notably, the latter is less objectively measured.

@大卫•伊卡普兰@sirgetagrip@格雷格•特拉维斯这听起来很像我的门柱移动。
保守党声称，自杀率早在2020年就已经上升了。当事实并非如此时（事实恰恰相反），现在的焦点转移到“精神疾病和服务需求”。值得注意的是，后者不太客观。

@sirgetagrip @David_LKaplan @greg_travis That sounds like not even measuring it. I'm not sure who that is supposed to help but it certainly doesn't help with understanding of what actually happened. "Knew the outcomes were going to be bad" is not a replacement for actual evidence.

@sirgetagrip@David_LKaplan@greg_travis这听起来好像连测量都没有。我不确定这对谁有帮助，但这肯定无助于理解实际发生的事情。“知道结果会很糟糕”并不能取代实际证据。

@David_LKaplan @sirgetagrip @greg_travis The data on suicides is clear as mud. Some reports say they declined, but drilling down, did increase in some subgroups. I'm not sure that is directly tied to remote school which existed across a wide variety of subgroups. But perhaps there is a study looking at it more closely.

@David_LKaplan@sirgetagrip@greg_travis关于自杀的数据一清二楚。一些报告说，他们下降了，但向下钻取，确实增加了一些亚组。我不确定这是否与远程学校有直接联系，远程学校存在于各种各样的亚群体中。但也许有一项研究对此进行了更深入的研究。