RT: Crypto winter is here ❄️. I was on the @Coinbase board until 2021 and led its Series D for @IVP. I’ve lived crypto cycles since 2013. Here are my predictions on how and when this crypto winter will end, and how to emerge stronger. 🧵👇/1
RT：Crypto winter来了❄️. 2021之前，我一直在@Coinbase董事会任职，并领导了@IVP的D系列。自2013年以来，我一直生活在加密周期中。以下是我对加密冬天将如何和何时结束以及如何变得更强大的预测。🧵👇/1.
RT: if anyone is interested in landing BIP324 (P2P encryption) in bitcoin at some point, or looking to do actual "crypto", please help reviewing the spec and implementation
https://github.com/bitcoin/bit...
RT：如果有人有兴趣在比特币上登陆BIP324（P2P加密），或者希望进行实际的“加密”，请帮助审查规范和实现
https://github.com/bitcoin/bit...
RT: Bitcoin's P2P node layer could be made stronger by upgrading to encrypted messaging between peers.
Right now peers communicate in an unencrypted fashion which hurts privacy and leaves the network vulnerable to MiTM attacks.
BIP324 fixes this.
https://tftc.io/martys-bent/is...
RT：比特币的P2P节点层可以通过升级到对等点之间的加密消息来增强。
目前，对等方以未加密的方式进行通信，这会损害隐私，使网络容易受到MiTM攻击。
BIP324解决了这个问题。
https://tftc.io/martys-bent/is...
So close; yet so far away. @100trillionUSD https://t.co/yLfhxzAKat
如此接近；然而如此遥远@100万亿https://t.co/yLfhxzAKat
It is fine to have a financial strategy that is basically squirrel level IQ.
Lookout for corn and then stash it somewhere cold and dark. Don't share with grasshoppers.
That's it. That is all that is needed. https://t.co/JpaS8yTwod
拥有一个基本上是松鼠级智商的财务策略是很好的。
注意玉米，然后把它藏在阴冷的地方。不要与蚱蜢分享。
就是这样。这就是所需要的一切。https://t.co/JpaS8yTwod
RT: Balance sheets of major central banks versus the S&P500. You're witnessing the fastest reduction in decades - soaking up an enormous amount of liquidity out of the market as they try to tame inflation.
*Note: On the next reversal, they can't print broken supply chains. https://t.co/iGsgcgEImB
RT：主要央行与标准普尔的资产负债表；你正在目睹数十年来最快的降息——在市场试图抑制通货膨胀时，大量流动性被吸走。
*注意：下一次反转时，他们无法打印断开的供应链。https://t.co/iGsgcgEImB
Is @coinbase getting ready for CBDCs? https://t.co/TyVpJvSjqm
@coinbase正在为CBDC做好准备吗？https://t.co/TyVpJvSjqm
RT: The Supreme Court STRIKES DOWN a New York gun-control law that required people to show "proper cause" to get a license to carry a concealed handgun outside the home. The vote is 6-3.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/o...
RT：最高法院驳回了纽约枪支管制法，该法要求人们出示“正当理由”才能获得在家外携带隐蔽手枪的许可证。投票结果是6票对3票。
https://www.supremecourt.gov/o...
Large upcoming quarterly expiry Friday 24 June 2022 on @DeribitExchange
🔹103k BTC contracts with notional value of $2.1B.
Max pain price: $20,500. https://t.co/ihtxghQE6s
2022年6月24日星期五，DeribitExchange即将到期
🔹103k份BTC合同，名义价值为21亿美元。
最高价：20500美元。https://t.co/ihtxghQE6s
Real Disposable Personal Income is down 6.15% from a year ago. Yet Real Personal Consumption Expenditures growth rates are positive.
This shows people digging a hole, running savings down and debt up. All the ingredients that tend to prolong and intensify recessions. https://t.co/E66PfABazE
实际可支配个人收入比一年前下降了6.15%。然而，实际个人消费支出增长率为正。
这表明人们在挖洞，储蓄减少，债务增加。所有可能延长和加剧衰退的因素。https://t.co/E66PfABazE
The US economy has plenty of momentum but rapidly disappearing support. The @federalreserve relentlessly focusing on price stability and 'demand destruction' is all pointing towards to an extremely hard landing. Falling back to earth will not be a pleasant experience. https://t.co/N8DgwohL3P
美国经济势头强劲，但支持率迅速下降。“联邦储备”（federalreserve）无情地关注价格稳定和“需求破坏”，这一切都指向了一个极端的硬着陆。重返地球将不是一次愉快的经历。https://t.co/N8DgwohL3P
While many are focused on inflation; the real story is MASSIVE ASSET DEFLATION! Debt underlies every fiat currency on the planet. As debt implodes, so do currencies. Inflation of things we need, deflation of things we have & fiat currencies becoming worthless. An ugly cocktail! https://t.co/eaPFU7pFuR
尽管许多人关注通货膨胀；真正的情况是大规模的资产紧缩！债务是地球上所有法定货币的基础。随着债务内爆，货币也会内爆。我们需要的东西膨胀，我们拥有的东西收缩&；法定货币变得一文不值。一杯难吃的鸡尾酒！https://t.co/eaPFU7pFuR
RT: BlockFi is untenable even after the Alameda loan
I have them burning ~$350mm in 2022 and w/ negative gross profit
Calibrated 'leaked' financials for
- Lower retail volumes (in line to q1 actuals)
- Higher borrowing costs due to rates
- Normalized credit loss
- New RCF interest https://t.co/5ZEPWBEUrx
RT：即使在阿拉米达贷款之后，BlockFi也无法维持
我让他们在2022年烧掉约3.5亿美元，毛利润为负
校准的“泄漏”财务数据
-零售量降低（与第一季度实际值一致）
-利率导致借贷成本增加
-标准化信贷损失
-新循环贷款利息https://t.co/5ZEPWBEUrx
RT: One thing most people don't fully grasp: it takes years, often decades, to go from a new infrastructure-level technology breakthrough (like crypto) to a vibrant ecosystem of mainstream applications.
RT：有一件事大多数人都没有完全理解：从一项新的基础设施级技术突破（如加密技术）到一个充满活力的主流应用生态系统，需要几年甚至几十年的时间。
Remember, the longer the crypto-winter, the deeper the bear market, the further the slog through the valley of fitness only results in stronger #Bitcoin HODLers on the other side. https://t.co/UA5xxFRUzN
请记住，加密冬天越长，熊市越深，在健康谷中的艰难跋涉越深，只会导致另一边的#比特币骗子更强大。https://t.co/UA5xxFRUzN
The current price inflation is taking place primarily because of (1) monetary inflation from printing and (2) lack of supply from people not producing.
A higher unemployment rate will just exacerbate #2. The solution is tighter monetary conditions & greater production of goods. https://t.co/lnvC5VaMzU
当前的价格上涨主要是因为（1）印刷业带来的货币通胀和（2）非生产性行业的供应不足。
更高的失业率只会加剧2。解决方案是收紧货币条件；提高商品产量。https://t.co/lnvC5VaMzU