RT: Bryce just came from the cold or maybe to my feed.
Good thread yet again https://twitter.com/BryceWeine...
布莱斯刚从寒冷中走出来，也许是为了我的食物。
又是一条好线索https://twitter.com/BryceWeine...
Unobtanium 的最新消息
My napkin estimates assume that the rate of increase remains constant, but in reality it will probably be more parabolic.
https://twitter.com/GregsOlder...
@BryceWeiner So like instead if 2140 it will be 2130? Doesn’t seem urgent or really that far off target, but I’m no expert.
发表时间：4年前 作者：Russ @GregsOlderBro我对餐巾纸的估计是假设增长率保持不变，但实际上可能更像抛物线。
https://twitter.com/GregsOlder...
@布莱斯韦纳：那么如果2140年是2130年呢？看起来并不紧急，也没有那么远，但我不是专家。
Even at these shit prices, BTC is profitable if you can get cheap power and can maintain consistent production by increasing your hashrate against the difficulty every 2016 blocks. https://t.co/8R5lC77RXE
即使是在这些糟糕的价格下，如果你能获得廉价的电力，并通过每2016个区块增加一次哈希率来保持稳定的产量，BTC也是有利可图的。https://t.co/8R5lC77RXE
Shorter timeframes.
This is already happening.
The Core roadmap relies on fees generated by usage over time to replace the POW subsidies, as well as an ever increasing fiat price.
This now must all happen faster.
https://twitter.com/GregsOlder...
@BryceWeiner You mean less of a subsidy in a shorter timeframe than expected?
发表时间：4年前 作者：Russ @GregsOlderBro时间更短。
这已经发生了。
核心路线图依赖于长期使用产生的费用来取代POW补贴，以及不断上涨的菲亚特价格。
现在，这一切必须更快地发生。
https://twitter.com/GregsOlder...
@布莱斯韦纳：你是说在比预期更短的时间内获得更少的补贴？
Note: Bitcoin Core development efforts now seem to focus on courting nation-states and keeping up with Ethereum and not fixing the fundamental operational issues.
注：比特币核心开发工作现在似乎专注于迎合民族国家，跟上以太坊的步伐，而不是解决基本的运营问题。
This can be fixed with a more flexible - and complex - retargeting algo but there is no will to have this fight.
这可以通过一种更灵活、更复杂的重定目标算法来解决，但没有意愿进行这种斗争。
The next halving should be 10-11 months ahead of schedule and the one following should be over a year ahead of schedule.
下一次减半应提前10-11个月，下一次减半应提前一年。
One would expect variance of ~1 month or so from the predicted target dates, but the fact that the gap is increasing at what seems to be an increasing rate should be cause for some concern.
The retarget maths are about some of the simplest in the whole codebase.
Easily gamed.
人们预计与预期的目标日期相差约1个月，但差距正在以似乎越来越大的速度扩大这一事实应该引起一些担忧。
重定目标数学是整个代码库中最简单的一部分。
很容易上当。
Just as a note, there are 210,000 blocks between halvings, which at ~10 minutes per block is 1,458.333... days.
值得注意的是，两次减半之间有210000个街区，每个街区约10分钟为1458.333。。。天。
This is a function of large mining farms which place new miners on the network within 1 to 2 blocks AFTER a retarget, which means they maximize their production on the network BEFORE the network can account for it being there.
This happens over and over and over again.
这是大型采矿场的一个功能，在重定目标后的1到2个区块内，将新矿工安置在网络上，这意味着他们在网络能够解释其存在之前，将网络上的产量最大化。
这种事一次又一次地发生。
As a result, over the years Bitcoin has gotten incrementally faster and faster.
Right now, it's over SEVEN MONTHS ahead of schedule.
Projecting forward, assuming the rate stays the constant, Bitcoin POW rewards will expire nearly 10 years ahead of schedule.
因此，多年来比特币的速度越来越快。
现在比计划提前了七个多月。
预测未来，假设利率保持不变，比特币POW奖励将提前近10年到期。
Bitcoin is moving faster than expected.
Last Three Block Halvings:
Predicted 2012-12-31
Actual 2012-11-28
Predicted 2016-12-28
Actual 2016-07-09
Predicted 2020-12-25
Actual 2020-05-11
The longer Bitcoin is mined, the less of a lifespan POW seems to have
This is not intended
比特币的发展速度超过了预期。
最后三个街区减半：
预测2012年12月31日
实际日期2012年11月28日
预测2016年12月28日
实际2016-07-09
预测2020年12月25日
实际2020-05-11
比特币开采时间越长，战俘的寿命似乎越短
这不是故意的
Halvings are roughly every 1458.333... days.
Blocks are a function of Poisson distribution at roughly every 10 minutes, adjusted every 2016 blocks, or 8-10 days.
I haven't analyzed it yet, but I would guess the avg time between retargets is shrinking.
大约每1458.333年减半一次。。。天。
区块是泊松分布的函数，大约每10分钟一次，每2016区块或8-10天调整一次。
我还没有分析过，但我猜重定目标之间的平均时间正在缩短。
If I were in the position to give financial advice, I might advise buying from 29k all the way down to zero and then forget you have it for 32 months.
如果我能提供财务建议，我可能会建议从29k一直买到零，然后忘记你有32个月的时间。
if we don't see a 20s handle i'll be shocked
如果我们看不到20多岁的手柄，我会很震惊
Dumps shall continue until morale improves
https://twitter.com/RunningLow...
@BryceWeiner Coinbase going public was BTC top, with 80% being the norm for big corrections, Coinbase is down 74% from ath.
Time to buy or more pain?
在士气提高之前，垃圾场将继续
https://twitter.com/RunningLow...
@Brycewiner Coinbase上市是BTC榜首，80%是大修正的标准，Coinbase比ath下跌74%。
是时候买了还是更多的痛苦？
RT: @BryceWeiner Coinbase going public was BTC top, with 80% being the norm for big corrections, Coinbase is down 74% from ath.
Time to buy or more pain?
转发：@Brycewiner Coinbase上市是BTC榜首，80%是大修正的标准，Coinbase比ath下跌74%。
是时候买了还是更多的痛苦？
@BryceWeiner Buying 🤔🧐
发表时间：4年前 作者：crypto sifu (Dude... just call me Jim 👀) @SifuCryptoBTFD
https://twitter.com/SifuCrypto...
@布莱斯韦纳购买🤔🧐
OoOoooOoooOooof https://t.co/2qCM4UpegG
呜呜呜呜https://t.co/2qCM4UpegG
RT: @BryceWeiner https://t.co/YNuE0dyfzK
转发：@Brycewinerhttps://t.co/YNuE0dyfzK